Si boss pernah bilang masukin aja di blog-mu tulisan mu itu.. tapi saya tidak punya blog saat itu, dan baru di kesempatan ini buat blog di Blogger ini.
Mudah2an bisa bikin happy-ending untuk semuanya...
Oiya karena ini laporan untuk London, saya bikin in English, tapi tenang aja ini Menglish kok (Malay English alias Inggris Melayu) gampang dimengerti banget lah, mudah2an :p ...
Happy-Reading....
October
08, 2012
Dear
Everyone,
Let
me start this Monday’s Daily Commentary by quoting a comment from a market
analyst in Sydney today:
“We
are arrived at one of the sorts of levels where the market needs to see a bit
more evidence of a medium-term outlook before it takes prices much beyond
current levels.”
Asian
stocks and other riskier assets, such as commodities, fell on Monday despite
surprising well US jobs report on Friday – that also eventually pulled Wall
Street stocks down at the end of the week.
MSCI’s
broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan fell around 0.7 percent on
about 0300 GMT – Japanese financial markets, however, were closed for a public
holiday.
Over
the year to date, the index is still up around 13 percent, and so is the All
Countries World index.
Alex
Richardson from Reuters said during Asian Markets today that:
“Equity
markets have been rallying since hitting their nadir for the year in early June
(or better I’d like to
say during the end Q2 up to the earlier Q3 in general), receiving a renewed burst of impetus last month when major central
banks rolled out fresh measures to support fragile economies.”
“But
with the euro zone’s sliding back towards recession amid a still unresolved
debt crisis and the U.S. recovery far from secure, investors remain reluctant
to chase growth-sensitive riskier assets too aggressively.”
I’d
like to write 3 some important things (in my opinion) we should take a look
that may be used as the evidence said by the Sydney’s analyst.
- A near concern in markets is U.S. corporate earnings season which kicks off with Alcoa on Tuesday. According to Thomson Reuters data that S&P 500 earnings for Q3 are forecast to have fallen 2.4 percent from the year-earlier period, which would be the first decline in 3 years.
- China’s GDP Q3 report on 18-Oct. that is forecast to be released 7.4 percent lower than previous one, 7.6 percent, the slower in 3 years. The full year growth target is 7.5 percent, and World Bank expects China’s full-year growth forecast for 2012 to come at 7.7%. The levels are the lowest more than a decade. The Bank also said the slowdown in China has a risk to get worse and to last longer than expected. It used the reason as well to cut its growth forecast for the East Asia and Pacific region today.
- Without a Spanish bailout, there’s no ECB money and more fear of “convertibility” – a euro breakup. Fear alone could weaken the euro. At this point, we better read an article from Yohay Elam - the Founder, Writer and Editor at Forex Crunch:
(Jurgen) Donges, a member of
Germany’s 5 strong Council of Economic experts, said clearly that when Germany
is rescuing Greece or Spain, it is thinking of rescuing German banks with
exposure to in these countries.
His
words caused a stir in the twittersphere and in Spanish papers and add to
the already tense relations between Berlin and Madrid, as the discussions about
a Spanish bailout request heat up.
Donges,
72, was born in Seville, Spain, and is a long serving member of the Council,
sometimes dubbed in Germany as the “Wise Men”. He released these crude
statements to Jordi Évole, the director of a show called “Salvados” on the
Spanish channel LaSexta.
As in
every country, bankers possess a lot of power and influence. When Germany
demands about necessary austerity and economic reforms, does this come to mask
the actual motivation for the bailouts?
Many pointed
out the circular nature of the bailouts, which was the clearest in
Ireland’s case, which is extremely similar to Spain.
The
government wasn’t suffocating from high debt, until it “adopted” the banks. So
then, Ireland was “saved”. Funds from the EU, IMF and from Irish taxpayers went
into Irish banks that in turn went into German, French and British banks.
Iceland
took a different path when banks were in trouble: it let them fall. Spain had a
choice in between walking in Ireland’s shoes or in Iceland’s shoes. It seems to
have to chosen the Irish path, but the hour may not be too late.
After
such an angering statement, Spain may just let its banks fall – this is a very
strong card, a card that Greece doesn’t have, and a card that may change the
balance of power.
What
do the charts say
While it’s been said that
markets need more evidence, some higher risk prices are in congestion zone
after their strong run. 
Above
is a gold <XAUUSD> daily chart, running between horizontal resistance
line around 1790s - that already hit but sot strong yet to hold – and sharp
trend line support around 1770s, already tested in Asia today.
Unexpected
evidence and bearish reversal signal from the RSI’s negative divergence may
halt the price more from its top in this congestion zone, and it’s interesting
to see whether the price is on the turning around mode from its strong run. It
need to see the price breaks below the sharp trend line support and the next
reaction low around 1740 to 1710 is reachable.
Happy Monday
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