Emas Mulai Konsolidasi Pasca Kenaikan Tajamnya?

Hi...Sebenarnya ini tulisan yang saya buat untuk pak boss saya di kantor, dibuat untuk kantor kami yang berada di London, Inggris... Biasanya pak boss yg buat setiap hari, tapi jika pak boss saya itu lagi berhalangan, karena harus presentasi atau cuap-cuap di stasiun televisi maka saya yang disuruh gantiin beliau..
Si boss pernah bilang masukin aja di blog-mu tulisan mu itu.. tapi saya tidak punya blog saat itu, dan baru di kesempatan ini buat blog di Blogger ini. 
Mudah2an bisa bikin happy-ending untuk semuanya...

Oiya karena ini laporan untuk London, saya bikin in English, tapi tenang aja ini Menglish kok (Malay English alias Inggris Melayu) gampang dimengerti banget lah, mudah2an :p ... 
Happy-Reading....

October 08, 2012

Dear Everyone,

Let me start this Monday’s Daily Commentary by quoting a comment from a market analyst in Sydney today:

“We are arrived at one of the sorts of levels where the market needs to see a bit more evidence of a medium-term outlook before it takes prices much beyond current levels.”

Asian stocks and other riskier assets, such as commodities, fell on Monday despite surprising well US jobs report on Friday – that also eventually pulled Wall Street stocks down at the end of the week.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan fell around 0.7 percent on about 0300 GMT – Japanese financial markets, however, were closed for a public holiday.

Over the year to date, the index is still up around 13 percent, and so is the All Countries World index.

Alex Richardson from Reuters said during Asian Markets today that:

“Equity markets have been rallying since hitting their nadir for the year in early June (or better I’d like to say during the end Q2 up to the earlier Q3 in general), receiving a renewed burst of impetus last month when major central banks rolled out fresh measures to support fragile economies.”

“But with the euro zone’s sliding back towards recession amid a still unresolved debt crisis and the U.S. recovery far from secure, investors remain reluctant to chase growth-sensitive riskier assets too aggressively.”

I’d like to write 3 some important things (in my opinion) we should take a look that may be used as the evidence said by the Sydney’s analyst.

• A near concern in markets is U.S. corporate earnings season which kicks off with Alcoa on Tuesday. According to Thomson Reuters data that S&P 500 earnings for Q3 are forecast to have fallen 2.4 percent from the year-earlier period, which would be the first decline in 3 years.
• China’s GDP Q3 report on 18-Oct. that is forecast to be released 7.4 percent lower than previous one, 7.6 percent, the slower in 3 years. The full year growth target is 7.5 percent, and World Bank expects China’s full-year growth forecast for 2012 to come at 7.7%. The levels are the lowest more than a decade. The Bank also said the slowdown in China has a risk to get worse and to last longer than expected. It used the reason as well to cut its growth forecast for the East Asia and Pacific region today.
• Without a Spanish bailout, there’s no ECB money and more fear of “convertibility” – a euro breakup. Fear alone could weaken the euro. At this point, we better read an article from Yohay Elam - the Founder, Writer and Editor at Forex Crunch:

(Jurgen) Donges, a member of Germany’s 5 strong Council of Economic experts, said clearly that when Germany is rescuing Greece or Spain, it is thinking of rescuing German banks with exposure to in these countries.

His words caused a stir in the twittersphere and in Spanish papers and add to the already tense relations between Berlin and Madrid, as the discussions about a Spanish bailout request heat up.

Donges, 72, was born in Seville, Spain, and is a long serving member of the Council, sometimes dubbed in Germany as the “Wise Men”. He released these crude statements to Jordi Évole, the director of a show called “Salvados” on the Spanish channel LaSexta.

As in every country, bankers possess a lot of power and influence. When Germany demands about necessary austerity and economic reforms, does this come to mask the actual motivation for the bailouts?

Many pointed out the circular nature of the bailouts, which was the clearest in Ireland’s case, which is extremely similar to Spain.

The government wasn’t suffocating from high debt, until it “adopted” the banks. So then, Ireland was “saved”. Funds from the EU, IMF and from Irish taxpayers went into Irish banks that in turn went into German, French and British banks.

Iceland took a different path when banks were in trouble: it let them fall. Spain had a choice in between walking in Ireland’s shoes or in Iceland’s shoes. It seems to have to chosen the Irish path, but the hour may not be too late.

After such an angering statement, Spain may just let its banks fall – this is a very strong card, a card that Greece doesn’t have, and a card that may change the balance of power.

What do the charts say

While it’s been said that markets need more evidence, some higher risk prices are in congestion zone after their strong run.

Above is a gold <XAUUSD> daily chart, running between horizontal resistance line around 1790s - that already hit but sot strong yet to hold – and sharp trend line support around 1770s, already tested in Asia today.

Unexpected evidence and bearish reversal signal from the RSI’s negative divergence may halt the price more from its top in this congestion zone, and it’s interesting to see whether the price is on the turning around mode from its strong run. It need to see the price breaks below the sharp trend line support and the next reaction low around 1740 to 1710 is reachable.  

Happy Monday

NFPs September AS Penentu Arah Pasar di Awal Q4 Ini?

Hi...
Ini tulisan yang saya buat untuk pak boss saya di kantor sebenarnya, report yang dibuat untuk kantor kami yang berada di London, Inggris... Biasanya pak boss yg buat setiap hari, tapi jika pak boss saya itu lagi berhalangan, karena harus presentasi atau cuap-cuap di stasiun televisi maka saya yang disuruh gantiin beliau..
Si boss pernah bilang masukin aja di blog-mu tulisan mu itu.. tapi saya tidak punya blog saat itu, dan baru di kesempatan ini buat blog di Blogger ini. 
Mudah2an bisa bikin happy-ending untuk semuanya...

Oiya karena ini laporan untuk London, saya bikin in English, tapi tenang aja ini Menglish kok (Malay English alias Inggris Melayu) gampang dimengerti banget lah, mudah2an :p ... 
Happy-Reading....

October 05, 2012

Hi again All…

 

Today we have an important figure of U.S. job that will likely move and shake markets before we enjoy the weekend.

Yesterday we’ve seen high risk assets traded heavy before Draghi provided Wall Street some comfort by confirming the ECB’s bond buying plans. Draghi’s favourable – although hardly ground breaking – remarks came too late to boost European equities as the FTSE 100 and DAX had already closed 0.03 higher and 0.23 lower respectively.

A well received Spanish auction failed to halt secondary market losses as 2 and 10-year yields rose to 3.41% and 5.91% respectively after the new Bank of Spain Governor indicated that the government’s growth forecast were too optimistic.

Romney’s ‘victory’ in yesterday’s first US presidential debate, alongside reasonable initial claims and factory orders data also proved supportive as the Wall Street stocks closed almost 0.6% higher in average.

Commodity prices remained volatile with oil prices rebounding to wipe out Wednesday’s shock 4% plus collapse.    

As today’s update Reuters’ poll showed, the world’s largest economy is anticipated to add another 113K jobs in September, and at the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to widen to 8.2% from 8.1% as discouraged workers return to the labor force.

An uptick in job growth will certainly dampen the Fed’s scope to expand its balance sheet further as central bank officials see a limited risk for a double-dip recession and may increase the appeal of the U.S. dollar – if it raises the outlook for growth. In turn, the weakening argument for more quantitative easing should instill a bullish outlook for the greenback, and we may see the FOMC start to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as recovery gradually gathers pace.

For another view, here below comes from Goldman Sachs that may be valuable and useful for us.

Payroll Preview: Another Sluggish Report

·   The labor-market news received since the disappointing August employment report has been mixed. While the ADP measure of employment, the manufacturing ISM survey and households' perception of job availability surprised on the upside, initial jobless claims and job advertising have been volatile, and the employment sub-index in the non-manufacturing ISM weakened notably.

·   We therefore expect another sluggish jobs report in September, with a 100,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls and a flat 8.1% unemployment rate. The possibility that the uncertainty associated with the fiscal cliff has started to weigh on firms' hiring decisions poses a downside risk to our forecast.

The August employment report was a disappointment as payrolls grew by only 96,000 and the unemployment rate ticked down to 8.1% due to a drop in labor force participation. The labor-market news since then has been mixed:

1. Jobless claims. Although initial jobless claims were higher in the September survey week (at 385,000) than in the August survey week (369,000), claims are now back to 367,000.

2. ADP. The ADP measure of private employment increased by 162,000 in September, ahead of expectations for a 140,000 gain but down from (a revised) 189,000 gain in August.

3. ISM surveys. While the employment component of the manufacturing ISM survey improved in September (from 51.6 to 54.7), the corresponding sub-index of the non-manufacturing ISM weakened (from 52.0 to 49.5). We have generally found the latter to be more closely correlated with overall payroll growth, not surprisingly given that it covers a much larger part of the economy.

4. Perceptions of job availability. The differential between respondents who view jobs as "plentiful" versus "hard to get" in the Conference Board survey improved 1.8 points in September.

5. Online help-wanted advertising. The Conference Board measure of help-wanted advertising declined in both July and August, but rose in September. The Monster.com index was up in seasonally adjusted terms in August (September data are not yet available). We have generally found that online help-wanted ads have the most predictive power for payrolls at a 1-2 month lag, so we would view this as a split verdict.

       

  Our payroll models interpret these conflicting signals as another sluggish employment gain in September. We therefore expect a 100,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls and a flat 8.1% unemployment rate. A sluggish employment report would also be consistent with the state of the economy more generally. Economic momentum since early August has softened, as our GDP tracking estimate for Q3 GDP and the August CAI have fallen from 2.3% to 2.0% and from 1.1% to 0.5%.

A downside risk to our forecast for the September jobs report is the possibility that the uncertainty associated with the fiscal cliff has started to weigh on firms' hiring decisions. In a simple test conducted in late August (i.e. before publication of the August employment report) we found no evidence that the fiscal cliff--or, to be more precise the looming automatic spending cuts (or so-called "sequester")--had already started to weigh on employment. We reached this conclusion by exploring whether industries with meaningful exposure to government spending had experienced weaker employment growth between May and July than industries with little exposure to government spending. We found no such relationship (with an r-squared of 0.003). Exhibit 1 shows an update of this analysis, showing the relationship between industry exposure to government spending against employment growth in August. Although the relationship is far from watertight--with an r-squared of only 0.026--a hint of a negative relationship has emerged. Such an effect would also be consistent with the very weak durable goods orders numbers in July and August. We therefore view any uncertainty effects from the fiscal cliff as a downside risk to our payroll forecast.

They’re both (Reuters and Goldman) slightly positive for September U.S. job figures compared to the previous month.

As the developments coming out of the U.S. raises the outlook for employment, we may see the Non-Farm Payrolls report top market expectations, and a marked improvement in the labor market should sap speculation for additional monetary support as the economy gets on a more sustainable path.

However, the slowdown in consumption paired with the downturn in private sector credit may weigh on hiring, and businesses may keep a cap on their labor force as the central bank maintains a cautious tone for the region.

What do the charts say

So we have assumption that there may be a dampening bets for more the Fed’s easing (and/or stimulus program) if US jobs report today are released better than expected. And USD is likely in green based on the scenario.

On the other hand, a dismal US jobs report may drag on the dollar as the Fed keeps the door open to expand its balance sheet further. As a result, if the employment report falls short of market expectations, we may a red intraday USD. 

On the daily chart above we can see the red and green zone of USD, with key level around 78s and 80s respectively.

An better than expected US jobs report that caps bets of the Fed’s continuing easing or stimulus may push USD above 80s. On the other hand, however, may pull USD below 78s.

And the chart above is one of the global asset prices, EURUSD, that bounced yesterday and now we can see its red and green zone as well, but with the opposite possibilities with USD.

An better than expected US jobs report that caps bets of the Fed’s continuing easing or stimulus may pull the pair below 1.2800s. On the other hand, however, may push it to stay above 1.3000s to potentially break the previous swing high 1.3169 later on.

Well, the EURUSD appears to be making another run after consolidation from the top level of 1.3169 failed to break below 1.2800 – around 50% Fibonacci retracement of this year downside, and a horizontal support line of 1.2747 that previously as the reaction high of its downside this year. From the track, the pair may continue to reverse its decline from earlier this year as the upward move upon a nice trend line support – which is also around 1.2747-1.2800 – from its bottom in July continues to take shape.

So, it may be interesting to see how a big mover and shaker, US jobs report, today to give direction to the pair ahead. And I wish always that all of these will give you the best opportunities.

Have a great weekend then