Ini tulisan yang saya buat untuk pak boss saya di kantor sebenarnya, report yang dibuat untuk kantor kami yang berada di London, Inggris... Biasanya pak boss yg buat setiap hari, tapi jika pak boss saya itu lagi berhalangan, karena harus presentasi atau cuap-cuap di stasiun televisi maka saya yang disuruh gantikan beliau..
Si boss pernah bilang masukin aja di blog-mu tulisan mu itu.. tapi saya tidak punya blog saat itu, dan baru di kesempatan ini buat blog di Blogger ini.
Mudah2an bisa bikin happy-ending untuk semuanya...
Oiya karena ini laporan untuk London, saya bikin in English, tapi tenang aja ini Menglish kok (Malay English alias Inggris Melayu) gampang dimengerti banget lah, mudah2an :p ...
Happy-Reading....
October
30, 2012
Hi All,
Senior
currency strategist of FXCM, John Kicklighter, said: “Hurricane Sandy threatens to take the US market offline for the first
48 hours of trade this week” – when market participants will monitor
closely BoJ meeting result today and U.S. October nonfarm payrolls data later
on Friday.
As stated earlier,
U.S. stock trading has been canceled for yesterday and possibly tomorrow due to
Hurricane Sandy – so trading should
resemble a US holiday where some traders are in and some are not.
Though no longer a
hurricane, "post-tropical" superstorm Sandy packed a hurricane-sized punch as it slammed into the Jersey
Shore on Monday, killing at least 11 people from West Virginia to North
Carolina and Connecticut, CNN
informs.
Sandy whipped
torrents of water over the streets of Atlantic City, stretching for blocks
inland and ripping up part of the vacation spot's fabled boardwalk. The storm
surge set records in Lower Manhattan, where flooded substations caused a
widespread power outage. It swamped beachfronts on both sides of Long Island
Sound and delivered hurricane-force winds from Virginia to Cape Cod as it came
ashore.
Gerard
Yankowski, head of spot foreign-exchange trading for the Americas at Royal Bank
of Scotland, said: “people are really
focused on an inflation target” – of 1% set by BOJ earlier this year, aside from an estimated 10 trillion yen
($125 billion) in asset purchases.
Mr.
Yakowski also expected the yen to weaken considerably in the next few weeks.
However, some traders may hold off ahead of the U.S. presidential election on
Nov. 6.
On its September meeting the BOJ increased its asset buying
and loan programme, its key monetary easing tool for now, by 10 trillion yen
($127 billion) -- double the usual amount -- to 80 trillion yen ($1.016
trillion), with the increase earmarked for purchases of government bonds and
treasury discount bills.
The
result of today’s BOJ meeting hasn’t been released when the Commentary is
finished around 0517 GMT. The bank is expected to ease monetary policy for the
2nd straight month by increasing asset purchases, as slumping
exports and factory output heighten pressure for bolder action to support an
the economy on the cusp of recession.
Standing over $1
trillion, the total stimulus is now equivalent to nearly a fifth of Japan's
economy.
For
the next pages, let’s take a U.S. binary event in November; October nonfarm
payrolls and presidential elections. I read commentary that may useful for us
from Michael Cloherty, head of U.S. rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets as
quoted by Cynthia Lin of Dow Jones Newswire.
After dancing in a tight range since early
August, the U.S. Treasury market is poised to break out. Shaking the market out
of its doldrums could be either the October employment report due Friday, Nov.
02, or results of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 06. The outlooks on
trading desks vary about the direction these events will lead Treasury, but the
key is that, when the move happens, it will happen swiftly.
Since
2008, the Fed has been a committed buyer of U.S government bonds in its bid to
stimulate the economy. In its latest decision in September, the central bank
disclosed plans to buy $40 billion in agency mortgages monthly, on top of an
existing program to buy and sell directly the Treasury market.
In
large part because of these actions, benchmark 10-year notes have traded
between tight yield of 1.45% and 1.89% for three months. Though anxieties about
global growth and Europe’s debt crisis have subsided, the Fed remaining a
committed buyer has meant U.S. Treasury have settled into a zone where traders
are relegated to buy when prices tick down and book profits when prices edge
up.
The
invaluable question is: will the binary event give any strong direction in
financial markets ahead?
There
are some scenarios in markets recently:
- Volume and volatility may be slight with market participants opting to remain on the sidelines ahead of the jobs data and the election.
- The U.S. government’s October jobs report will give a snapshot of the current labor market. It could also give a bit to lift to President Obama, should it come out better than anticipated, or help Republican candidate Mitt Romney – if it is worse than forecast.
- Should there be an upbeat jobs report, owners of Treasury could rush for the exits, driving process lower. Analysts also warn there could be a sell off if Mitt Romney, the Republican Party candidate, wins the presidential election or if President Barrack Obama is victorious by a wide margin.
Polls
currently indicate that President Obama is a slight favorite to win on November
06, but the race will be tight. The most recent Reuters /Ipsos poll of likely
voters shows the president ahead – 47% to 46%.
Expectations
for the next nonfarm payrolls report, set for release later on Friday, are by
no means certain, either. Analysts expect 124,000 jobs were added in October –
up 10,000 from September. However, the unemployment rate is also seen ticking
higher – to 7.9% from 7.8%.
What
do the charts say
In the midst of what are going to
happen in U.S. for the next days – from hurricane Sandy effect, nonfarm
payrolls data to presidential election – the dollar index is still trying to
hold above 80s and building its trend support from the bottom 78.604.
Since September, the dollar index has
tried to break 80s but failed, and know it’s the 3rd try. Will it
fail again or will it manage to hold above the level? It is interesting moment
to watch in the midst of what is going to happen in U.S. for the next days till
and shortly after presidential election result comes out.
Below is S&P
500 daily chart that has managed to break its supports – its trend line support
at first then two immediate horizontal supports – and stay below them to get
closer to 1400.
There’s important moment in U.S. and
there’s interesting thing in the two daily charts of U.S. assets.
And I am going to watch if
S&P 500 can break the next horizontal support which is around 1400 and also
around 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its upside in the second half of the
year, from 1266.74 to 1474.51.
Ending the Commentary I feel deepest
sympathy for those affected by the ‘Frankerstorm’, and wish the worse is not
coming.
