Ini tulisan yang saya buat untuk pak boss saya di kantor sebenarnya, report yang dibuat untuk kantor kami yang berada di London, Inggris... Biasanya pak boss yg buat setiap hari, tapi jika pak boss saya itu lagi berhalangan, karena harus presentasi atau cuap-cuap di stasiun televisi maka saya yang disuruh gantiin beliau..
Si boss pernah bilang masukin aja di blog-mu tulisan mu itu.. tapi saya tidak punya blog saat itu, dan baru di kesempatan ini buat blog di Blogger ini.
Mudah2an bisa bikin happy-ending untuk semuanya...
Oiya karena ini laporan untuk London, saya bikin in English, tapi tenang aja ini Menglish kok (Malay English alias Inggris Melayu) gampang dimengerti banget lah, mudah2an :p ...
Happy-Reading....
October
03, 2012
Hi
All…
If
any (or may be many) of you have been surprised with global financial markets
move in September, here below I would like to meet you with another surprising
thing… But it’s not intended to double surprise you…
This
chart is taken from www.zerohedge.com
that I think will likely be very useful for you. This chart shows us September
performance of global assets from the best to the worse.
And
I’m here so surprised to see the Greece Athex as the best performer in the
month, at the time Greek is still to be one of the big concerns of debt crisis.
And
the chart below show us the same thing but in the quarterly base and on Q3 of
2012.
Surprising
me again that the Greece Althex is still the winner on the longer period in
quarterly base, and another surprise also came to me when I look to the worse
performer – Shanghai Composite!
Do
those surprises come because of new-massive liquidity of central banks... or of
market momentum or a lot of good luck…?
In
short, we got more than expected from the Federal Reserve, the European Central
Bank and even Bank of Japan with their new asset purchase programs. And
historically, September’s negative seasonal bias is much less pronounced in
years when the market is up year-to-date, as is the case this year. Finally,
much of the event risk that investors were worried about in Europe, slowing
global economy and the Middle East failed to materialize.
Don’t
Be Fooled by September Market’s Rally by Russ Koesterich, founding member of the Blackrock
Investment Institute and Global Chief Investment Strategist of Blackrock.
Below
is some important paragraphs in his report:
September’s
rally was surprisingly strong, counteracting the normal negative seasonal bias. But investors should consider adopting a
more defensive stance into the fall as the rally masked some troublesome
deterioration in the economic environment.
Since
1896, September has had an average return of slightly worse than -1%, the only month of the year with a
statistically significant bias. But this year September did not play to script.
As of Friday, the S&P 500 closed up 2.4% for the month, Europe 2.7%, Brazil
3.7% and Hong Kong 7%.
Three
factors combined to contribute to the unusually strong month:
1. Massive
new liquidity programs from the major central banks;
2. Market
momentum; and
3. A
lot of good luck.
However,
investors might be ignoring some troubling data on the economic front,
particularly in the United States. One reason we’re a bit nervous about
investor complacency is that along with the market rally, implied volatility
collapsed in September. At the beginning of the month, the VIX Index – which
measures implied volatility – was at 17.5, below its long-term average. As of
last Friday, it was at around 15.
While
the drop in volatility was partly justified by improving credit conditions,
other factors that typically drive volatility have deteriorated. The Chicago
Fed National Activity Index is now at its lowest level since mid-2009, which
suggests much slower economic growth. In addition, we still have the looming risk of the fiscal cliff, which doesn’t appear to be currently
reflected in equity prices.
Given
this environment, we think investors should consider shifting some exposure
from market cap weighted indices towards minimum volatility. Minimum volatility portfolios historically have produced better
risk-adjusted returns over the long term while providing some downside cushion
amid uncertainty in the near term. They’re worth considering if you’re worried
about the recent slowdown and the potential for a pickup in volatility.
Source:
Bloomberg
What Do the Charts Say
In
this subtitle, I’d like to show you the S&P 500 chart, as a mid-performer
of global assets list.
The index remains radiant in the glow of QE.
Despite some recent struggles since the launch of QE3 a few weeks ago, the index
remains virtually indefatigable in a market where underlying fundamental conditions continue to deteriorate. As the third quarter
drew to a close, the S&P 500 enjoyed well-tested support at its upward sloping 20-day moving averages,
and about to test horizontal line support that consists of support levels area,
1422.38 to 1426.68. From the top level of 1474.51, S&P 500 is also building
early roof. So it is interesting to see in this last quarter of 2012, in which
U.S. will choose a new period president, whether the roof is strong enough to
make trend line resistance and push the price below its horizontal line support.
Or
the surprise will continue: with the potential correction fails to break below
horizontal line support and trend line support, now around 1415, and the upside
back to hit above 1474.51. Well, we’re likely going to see another top of 1576
– that has been hit before Lehman Brothers collapse. If it hits during this
last quarter of the year (when the first $120 billion of the third round of the
Fed purchasing program begins), then it must be the big surprise with more than
8% rise from the current level.
Have a great day…
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