NFPs September AS Penentu Arah Pasar di Awal Q4 Ini?

Hi...
Ini tulisan yang saya buat untuk pak boss saya di kantor sebenarnya, report yang dibuat untuk kantor kami yang berada di London, Inggris... Biasanya pak boss yg buat setiap hari, tapi jika pak boss saya itu lagi berhalangan, karena harus presentasi atau cuap-cuap di stasiun televisi maka saya yang disuruh gantiin beliau..
Si boss pernah bilang masukin aja di blog-mu tulisan mu itu.. tapi saya tidak punya blog saat itu, dan baru di kesempatan ini buat blog di Blogger ini. 
Mudah2an bisa bikin happy-ending untuk semuanya...

Oiya karena ini laporan untuk London, saya bikin in English, tapi tenang aja ini Menglish kok (Malay English alias Inggris Melayu) gampang dimengerti banget lah, mudah2an :p ... 
Happy-Reading....

October 05, 2012

Hi again All…

 

Today we have an important figure of U.S. job that will likely move and shake markets before we enjoy the weekend.

Yesterday we’ve seen high risk assets traded heavy before Draghi provided Wall Street some comfort by confirming the ECB’s bond buying plans. Draghi’s favourable – although hardly ground breaking – remarks came too late to boost European equities as the FTSE 100 and DAX had already closed 0.03 higher and 0.23 lower respectively.

A well received Spanish auction failed to halt secondary market losses as 2 and 10-year yields rose to 3.41% and 5.91% respectively after the new Bank of Spain Governor indicated that the government’s growth forecast were too optimistic.

Romney’s ‘victory’ in yesterday’s first US presidential debate, alongside reasonable initial claims and factory orders data also proved supportive as the Wall Street stocks closed almost 0.6% higher in average.

Commodity prices remained volatile with oil prices rebounding to wipe out Wednesday’s shock 4% plus collapse.    

As today’s update Reuters’ poll showed, the world’s largest economy is anticipated to add another 113K jobs in September, and at the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to widen to 8.2% from 8.1% as discouraged workers return to the labor force.

An uptick in job growth will certainly dampen the Fed’s scope to expand its balance sheet further as central bank officials see a limited risk for a double-dip recession and may increase the appeal of the U.S. dollar – if it raises the outlook for growth. In turn, the weakening argument for more quantitative easing should instill a bullish outlook for the greenback, and we may see the FOMC start to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as recovery gradually gathers pace.

For another view, here below comes from Goldman Sachs that may be valuable and useful for us.

Payroll Preview: Another Sluggish Report

·   The labor-market news received since the disappointing August employment report has been mixed. While the ADP measure of employment, the manufacturing ISM survey and households' perception of job availability surprised on the upside, initial jobless claims and job advertising have been volatile, and the employment sub-index in the non-manufacturing ISM weakened notably.

·   We therefore expect another sluggish jobs report in September, with a 100,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls and a flat 8.1% unemployment rate. The possibility that the uncertainty associated with the fiscal cliff has started to weigh on firms' hiring decisions poses a downside risk to our forecast.

The August employment report was a disappointment as payrolls grew by only 96,000 and the unemployment rate ticked down to 8.1% due to a drop in labor force participation. The labor-market news since then has been mixed:

1. Jobless claims. Although initial jobless claims were higher in the September survey week (at 385,000) than in the August survey week (369,000), claims are now back to 367,000.

2. ADP. The ADP measure of private employment increased by 162,000 in September, ahead of expectations for a 140,000 gain but down from (a revised) 189,000 gain in August.

3. ISM surveys. While the employment component of the manufacturing ISM survey improved in September (from 51.6 to 54.7), the corresponding sub-index of the non-manufacturing ISM weakened (from 52.0 to 49.5). We have generally found the latter to be more closely correlated with overall payroll growth, not surprisingly given that it covers a much larger part of the economy.

4. Perceptions of job availability. The differential between respondents who view jobs as "plentiful" versus "hard to get" in the Conference Board survey improved 1.8 points in September.

5. Online help-wanted advertising. The Conference Board measure of help-wanted advertising declined in both July and August, but rose in September. The Monster.com index was up in seasonally adjusted terms in August (September data are not yet available). We have generally found that online help-wanted ads have the most predictive power for payrolls at a 1-2 month lag, so we would view this as a split verdict.

       

  Our payroll models interpret these conflicting signals as another sluggish employment gain in September. We therefore expect a 100,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls and a flat 8.1% unemployment rate. A sluggish employment report would also be consistent with the state of the economy more generally. Economic momentum since early August has softened, as our GDP tracking estimate for Q3 GDP and the August CAI have fallen from 2.3% to 2.0% and from 1.1% to 0.5%.

A downside risk to our forecast for the September jobs report is the possibility that the uncertainty associated with the fiscal cliff has started to weigh on firms' hiring decisions. In a simple test conducted in late August (i.e. before publication of the August employment report) we found no evidence that the fiscal cliff--or, to be more precise the looming automatic spending cuts (or so-called "sequester")--had already started to weigh on employment. We reached this conclusion by exploring whether industries with meaningful exposure to government spending had experienced weaker employment growth between May and July than industries with little exposure to government spending. We found no such relationship (with an r-squared of 0.003). Exhibit 1 shows an update of this analysis, showing the relationship between industry exposure to government spending against employment growth in August. Although the relationship is far from watertight--with an r-squared of only 0.026--a hint of a negative relationship has emerged. Such an effect would also be consistent with the very weak durable goods orders numbers in July and August. We therefore view any uncertainty effects from the fiscal cliff as a downside risk to our payroll forecast.

They’re both (Reuters and Goldman) slightly positive for September U.S. job figures compared to the previous month.

As the developments coming out of the U.S. raises the outlook for employment, we may see the Non-Farm Payrolls report top market expectations, and a marked improvement in the labor market should sap speculation for additional monetary support as the economy gets on a more sustainable path.

However, the slowdown in consumption paired with the downturn in private sector credit may weigh on hiring, and businesses may keep a cap on their labor force as the central bank maintains a cautious tone for the region.

What do the charts say

So we have assumption that there may be a dampening bets for more the Fed’s easing (and/or stimulus program) if US jobs report today are released better than expected. And USD is likely in green based on the scenario.

On the other hand, a dismal US jobs report may drag on the dollar as the Fed keeps the door open to expand its balance sheet further. As a result, if the employment report falls short of market expectations, we may a red intraday USD. 

On the daily chart above we can see the red and green zone of USD, with key level around 78s and 80s respectively.

An better than expected US jobs report that caps bets of the Fed’s continuing easing or stimulus may push USD above 80s. On the other hand, however, may pull USD below 78s.

And the chart above is one of the global asset prices, EURUSD, that bounced yesterday and now we can see its red and green zone as well, but with the opposite possibilities with USD.

An better than expected US jobs report that caps bets of the Fed’s continuing easing or stimulus may pull the pair below 1.2800s. On the other hand, however, may push it to stay above 1.3000s to potentially break the previous swing high 1.3169 later on.

Well, the EURUSD appears to be making another run after consolidation from the top level of 1.3169 failed to break below 1.2800 – around 50% Fibonacci retracement of this year downside, and a horizontal support line of 1.2747 that previously as the reaction high of its downside this year. From the track, the pair may continue to reverse its decline from earlier this year as the upward move upon a nice trend line support – which is also around 1.2747-1.2800 – from its bottom in July continues to take shape.

So, it may be interesting to see how a big mover and shaker, US jobs report, today to give direction to the pair ahead. And I wish always that all of these will give you the best opportunities.

Have a great weekend then